![]() roughly a decade below S1 - Minor Solar Radiation Storm. The net effect of the above solar wind measures was nevertheless for mainly quiet activity, but with a general increase observed as the 24-hour period ended.Įnergetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation levels continued their slow decline in the wake of 16 May's large proton-producing X-ray flare from the southeastern large sunspot group, and are now very near resting Background levels, having peaked at 0.8pfu - i.e. The north-south component was initially small scale and stable, but this gave way to a larger magnitude and mostly anti-aligned behaviour (with Earth's field) in the UTC evening. This was a precursor to a step-wise change upwards in the associated solar wind magnetic field with a flat background previously observed rising to a slightly elevated peak. The number of particles in the solar wind started within background levels, but became elevated by 19/2130UTC. ![]() The solar wind speed was at background levels but with a slight rising trend. Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind was suggestive of a slow regime for much of the period, however this transitioned into a possible precursor to an anticipated coronal hole fast wind through the UTC evening. No new Earth-directed CMEs were therefore in evidence at the time of writing, although confidence in this statement is lower than typical given the weight of events. Whatever the cause of this CME, provisionally it appears too narrow, north and west to have any bearing on conditions at Earth, with modelling results awaited. This may be the progenitor of a narrow and faint CME heading north and west, although its appearance is perhaps too immediate. Thirdly, in the northwest, another filament disappeared around 19/1300UTC, as seen on ground-based near-infrared imagery. This in turn sparked movement in a more central filament from 19/0830UTC, with this feature remaining mobile for several hours following, but perhaps not resulting in any lift-off, with no obvious subsequent ejecta on satellite imagery. Perhaps the most relevant observed in the 24-hour period were one from the southwest at 19/0530UTC, which produced a CME seen heading largely south and west of the track of the Earth's orbit. The Sun has seen numerous 'filaments' (arcs of plasma) become mobile or else disappear in the past 36 hours or so. ![]() Many of the other regions on the Sun were smaller magnetic dipoles or else unipolar groups, while the main changes were confined to a third spot in the west, which saw proliferation of its intermediate spots for a time, with this succeeded by a spreading tendency later in the UTC day. A second large spot group in the southeast which gave an M9.6 on 16 May is large but less complex overall. Of the current cohort of spot groups, determination as to the complexity and therefore flare potential of the most active group in the northeast is being hampered by the narrow viewing angle. There are currently around seven sunspot regions on the facing side of the Sun with three others fading away. The largest of these flares resulted in an R2 Moderate radio blackout, peaking at 19/0048UTC. Solar Activity: Solar activity has been high over the past 24 hours, with X-ray activity showing several Moderate-class flares, these mostly originating from a large and complex sunspot group near the northeastern solar horizon. Slight chance of G1 Minor Geomagnetic Storms from later in UTC weekend.Īnalysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours Space Weather Forecast Headline: Minor/Moderate R1/R2 radio blackouts from X-ray flares likely.
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